Tropical cyclones to become stronger, more frequent, says study

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This Aug. 14, 2010, file photo shows an aerial view of the flooded Rohjan area in southern Pakistan. Prominent climate scientist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said Monday, July 8, 2013, that rising greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a 10 to 40 percent increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones by the year 2100. AP PHOTO

WASHINGTON—The world typically sees about 90 tropical cyclones a year, but that number could increase dramatically in the next century due to global warming, a US scientist said Monday.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a 10 to 40 percent increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones by the year 2100, said prominent climate scientist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Those storms could be up to 45 percent more intense, making landfall 55 percent stronger—a “substantial” increase, said the research in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Stronger storm surges, winds and rain would likely be felt most acutely in the southern Indian Ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean, and could raise risks of damage in coastal areas, he said.

Satellite data has shown that cyclones—which are rotating systems of clouds and thunderstorms—have remained relatively consistent in frequency and power over the past 40 years.

But he projected a steady uptick in the future using six different climate models combined with forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which predicts carbon dioxide emissions will about triple by 2100.

Tropical cyclones can bring heavy rains and winds, and vary in potency from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane.

The Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico typically see about six hurricanes and 11 tropical storms per year, while the Pacific Ocean gets about 10 hurricanes and 19 tropical storms, according to US government ocean monitors.

Cyclones form in areas where there is warm deep water and cool humid air. Wind over the water pushes thermal heat upward, causing the warming air to circle and get stronger.

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  • http://fc09.deviantart.net/fs71/f/2013/275/f/f/joker_arroyo__santiago__release_of_dap_funds_i_by_lightisi-d6p118x.jpg Andrés Bonifacio y de Castro

    world develops at ph expense

    • catmanjohn

      So then fight back… only a lazy loser would just accept that and do nothing. The PH government must turn this monstrous threat to its own benefit by rebuilding its infrastructure, from core outwards. It would mean spending and borrowing $$$, but it is crucial for the future survival and health of the People. Create a network of buildings in the form of schools, hospitals, and public buildings that would survive any major typhoon or earthquake it would be subject to. Build roads to last, and not some shoddy graft program to enrich local politicians and contractors. Water and sewer projects are so crucial, and the sooner the People can see that sh!t can be converted to energy, and its bi-products treated to make fertilizer, the better, maybe not for parasite energy corporations and their lobbyist politicians. There is so much to do, so many ideas to let loose and develop, and learn from the past disasters like Pablo which unfortunately is being swept under the rug, and not being utilized or discussed for the maximum good.

      • BluerthanBlue0074

        Very well said.

    • AJ23Jumpan

      every 3rd world’s expense

    • kanoy

      you have to contribute a lot more than maids and nurses first

      • ReneV

        what have you contributed other than mouth words against the country where you live? where do you live and what do you do?

  • DurangoJoe

    ” Those storm could be up to 45% more intense, making landfall 55% stronger- a substantial increase, said the research in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.” But in reality, all 10 hurricanes and 19 tropical storms will by-pass the Philippines area of responsibility and will slam full force towards Beijing and vicinity because it is the most likely land mass that is located on a perfect trajectory of these super-storms.

    • WeAry_Bat

      Besides attracting storms because of the heat and humidity from its numerous, cheap, toxic product factories.

      • DurangoJoe

        Don’t forget they also get very strong earthquakes and green algae on their beaches. China wants to grab everything so they get all the bad things that goes with it. China is like the “punching bag” of Mother Nature and they deserve all of it.

      • kanoy

        HUMMM that explains it then

        if China grabs everything so they get all the bad things that goes with it.

        the Philippines grabs nothing and is left with all that goes with it

      • DurangoJoe

        Sad to say but you are right. They escort 60 fishing boats to steal our fish and large clams with their warships and we just look and watch while our own fishermen are getting nothing. They leave and come back for more. Realistically, we are no match against their military might. They are actually terrorizing our country with their military capability. We need stronger countries like Japan and USA who are willing and able to help us defend our sovereignty. I can’t believe there are Philippine senators who are against it. It is the most practical and the right thing to do!!! They love to argue among themselves while the enemy is coming closer and soon blasting our door.

      • ReneV

        then you are still in the country and “enjoying the sun”

      • 3xposed

        Can’t wait to see when the Philippines get hit by a typhoon then. Bachi’ed your own. Life goes on.

      • kanoy

        GEOMETRIC FAULTS ARE DUE TO A WAY OF LIFE?

      • kanoy

        NOT because of climate change

        BECAUSE OF GODS DESIGN

      • BluerthanBlue0074

        Indeed it is because of God’s design and the nature itself.
        It’s us,the human beings,that dwell in this planet are the ones destroying our nature and God’s design. So when mother nature strikes back we can’t control it.It’s best to start taking care of our nature not destroy it. WE all can do it even in our own little way.

      • kanoy

        THERE IS A LACK OF COOPERATION A LOT TO DO WITH CORRUPTION AND IDEALS–SO MUCH MONEY HAS BEEN DONATED TO POOR COUNTRIES LIKE THE RP ONLY TO COME UP MISSING AND NOTHING EVEN STARTED AND RICH COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA WHO SAY ITS ALL A HOAX AND DO LITTLE IF ANYTHING

  • warillaman

    I hope typhoons will frequent Philippines, always towards panatag shoal and splits up to the ships in ayungin, onwards to mongoloid chinks country to wreck havoc there!
    NEVER BUY INFERIOR CHEAP MADE IN CHINA GOODS, ITS DANGEROUS TO YOUR HEALTH!!!

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