Expect China to drive away Filipinos again from West PH Sea as arbitration begins

INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines – After being driven away twice from maritime features within the Philippines own waters, China will likely restrict the movement of Filipinos in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) more as the arbitration case before the United Nations (UN) slowly gains traction.

“[The expulsion incident in Ayungin Shoal] is consistent with the pattern that emerged since last year of increasing restrictions of movement in WPS,” Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines’ Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, said in a text message to INQUIRER.net Wednesday.

“We can expect same, if not higher, levels of restrictions from here on, especially during pendency of arbitration,” he said.

Last March 9, two civilian vessels contracted by the Philippine Navy to conduct troop rotation and resupply operations to Ayungin Shoal were blocked by Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and told to leave.

Ayungin Shoal, also known as Second Thomas Shoal internationally and Ren’ai Reef to China, is home to the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded world war II era ship, which serves as the garrison of a marine detachment tasked with defending the shoal.

The shoal lies 105 nautical miles from the coast of Palawan, putting it within the 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone of the Philippines and granting the country the exclusive rights to the maritime resources within.

The Navy has kept soldiers on the rusted ship since 1999 when it was grounded there to mark the Philippines territorial claim.

Though the CCG are constantly patrolling the shoal, this was the first time in 15 years that they interfered in the troop rotation and resupply operations of the Navy, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) spokesman Raul Hernandez told reporters in a previous press conference.

Last Jan. 27, the CCG used water cannons to drive away Filipino fishermen trying to fish in Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Panatag shoal or Scarborough shoal, which is around 118 nautical miles from the coast of Zambales province.

Bajo de Masinloc has been completely under the control of China since the standoff last April 2012 which began when Chinese fishermen were found illegally poaching endangered and endemic Philippine marine species in the shoal.

The Philippines has filed diplomatic protests for the Ayungin expulsion incident and the Scarborough water cannon incident but were immediately rejected by China.

Unafraid

When asked why China has become fearless in blocking Philippines from the WPS, Batongbacal said “they’re not afraid of sanctions, because they don’t believe any will come as long as they don’t overtly use force.”

China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which was established to maintain international peace and security. The council can impose sanctions or even force.

However, being a permanent member, China has veto power meaning it can block approval of resolutions of the council.

“Since China is member of the UN Security Council (SC), we can’t get anything from there. [Philippines] can make an effort, but ultimately UNSC will do nothing more than talk, if at all,” Batongbacal said.

“China does not believe anyone, even the UN, should be involved in this,” he said.

Retribution for arbitration

Batongbacal sees that China’s driving away of Filipinos from the WPS is due to the pending arbitration case before the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS).

The Philippines is set to submit its memorial, or written arguments, by March 30.

“[These expulsion incidents are] partly in response to the arbitration, certainly,” Batongbacal said.

China has refused to participate in the case insisting on bilateral talks between the Philippines and China.

The Philippines is questioning the legitimacy of China “expansive” nine-dash line claim that covers nearly the entire South China Sea including parts of the Philippines 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

Several southeast Asian countries also have respective claims in the region including Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei.

“China will not back down knowing that others might follow the Philippines example if they do,” Batongbacal said.

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