How Malacañang is making it so easy for Beijing

SAN FRANCISCO — It didn’t take long for President Benigno Aquino III to realize that appearing to brag about having the US send planes to spy on the Chinese military in the disputed territories was a bad idea.

Unfortunately, it was too late. And we found ourselves in a middle of yet another diplomatic fiasco.

Aquino tells Reuters that his government “might be requesting overflights” by the US using special surveillance planes. “We don’t have aircraft with those capabilities … We have a lot of needs,” he is quoted as saying.

The statement triggers wild speculation as other politicians, led by Senators Juan Ponce Enrile and Gringo Honasan, who fantasize on how spy planes could turn the tide for the Philippines.

And by the way, they note, such operations should be covered by that defense treaty with the Americans – even though it’s an old, almost forgotten agreement that probably has enough loopholes for Washington to use as a polite way out.

Finally, Aquino backtracks. He tells Agence France Presse that he didn’t really say that Manila had asked for the spy planes. “If you will go through the transcript of the interview, I said ‘We might’ (ask for US help),” he is quoted as saying. “That is where (the interviewers) suddenly introduced the supposed request for overflights, which wasn’t what I stated.”

In fact, the Reuters story did say that Aquino talked about how his government “may” ask for spy planes.

But then again, the hair-splitting is pointless.

For what’s truly jarring was that a Philippine president appeared to be pleading with another power for help. Worse, it appeared that he and the other politicos who followed his lead sure sounded confident they’ll get it.

But it’s been very obvious that the US is in no mood to get into yet another war. And certainly not with a major economic partner and certainly not on behalf of a former colony which isn’t that important to the US.

The most confounding aspect of the spy planes fiasco is this: it actually helped Beijing’s case. It was the latest example of how Malacañang has been making it so easy for Beijing.

So easy.

The Philippines has become mired in the most dangerous international dispute since World War II.

It’s a tough bind.

You have a big neighbor, with a powerful army, growing economic clout and a regime with proven willingness to trample on the weakest of its opponents, whether they’re Tibetan monks or unarmed students or a critic of Beijing’s draconian family planning program who also happened to be blind.

What do you do? Certainly, standing firm and proclaiming your commitment to defend your territory is good, even admirable.

But that’s not enough.

Having a policy based solely on chest-thumping and saber-rattling is fraught with risks. In fact, that’s precisely the stance Beijing is hoping for.

Arresting Chinese fishermen at Scarborough Shoal was a gift from heaven as far as Beijing’s warmongers are concerned. It gave Beijing’s most hard-line elements the opening they’ve probably been praying for, a chance to flex their military muscle in the West Philippine Sea.

For one thing Team Noynoy forgot was this: You don’t rush into a fight in which you are clearly outmatched. And you don’t let your macho-posturing give adversary an opportunity to become even stronger.

For, sad to say, that’s what Team Noynoy has been doing.

Playing the “Uncle-Sam-will-defend-us” card has been the biggest error, one that’s probably even turning off would-be allies in Southeast Asia and making the Beijing regime look good to the group it’s trying hardest to impress: the Chinese.

For, again, let’s remember that the dispute is really with Beijing, not the Chinese people. But Aquino has been making it easier for Beijing to make the bizarre argument to the Chinese nation that because it is called the “South China Sea” it is therefore a property of China!

Let’s not forget that nationalism – or more precisely nationalist chauvinism — is pretty powerful card to play in the world politics.  And it’s an even stronger card when the story is given another spin, as not really about Beijing versus Manila, but Beijing versus the powerful Uncle Sam (represented by pesky Manila.)

Like I said, it’s a tough bind.

The sad part of the story is that while Aquino has scored some points in the fight against corruption and restoring confidence in the government and democracy, he has spent the last two years stepping on one landmine after another when it comes to Beijing.

For to justify its macho-posturing against Manila to the Chinese, Beijing can simply hold up a portrait of Aquino and say, ‘Remember this president who let a group of innocent Hong Kong tourists get killed at Luneta, who, despite his own government’s admission that it made grave mistakes in the disastrous rescue mission, refused to apologize to the survivors of the victims?’

And they can even add: ‘And remember how this leader spoke of the tragedy with a smirk on his face?’

To make matters worse, the Philippines can’t even rely on forces that should be the country’s natural allies: the Chinese who believe in democracy and would want to have peaceful relations with its neighbors.

For it’s doubtful that China’s champions of democracy and human rights will be sympathetic to Manila’s woes.

Why should they? Why should they care about a country whose government joined the likes of North Korea and Iran in boycotting the Nobel Prize ceremony for a staunch advocate of human rights in China?

And let’s not forget the lame excuse Team Noynoy came up for such an insult: Manila wanted to save accomplices of Chinese drug dealers.

But maybe there’s hope.

“New tack on dispute with China: Just Wait,” read a Philippine Daily Inquirer headline, with the sub-headline: “Aquino to execs: Let’s not telegraph our punches.”

Good.

The fact that they’re telegraphing the point about not telegraphing their punches is a bit awkward, but it’s a good start.  And by ‘just wait,’ I hope they mean waiting for a long, very long, time.

For the fact is this is going to be a long, complicated battle. Think about the struggle for peace in Mindanao or the Middle East. Think about the war against drug cartels in Latin America.

This international and diplomatic dilemma will be with us for years, even decades. It will surely outlive Aquino’s government, and probably Aquino himself.

There’s one other thing to think about: The Philippines has recently been portrayed as an emerging economy with a more promising future.  But that’s not going to happen, that will turn out to be useless speculation, if the country gets suckered into gearing up for a war it cannot win.

All the hard work in creating a stronger economy will go to waste if, instead of focusing on things that would make that dream a reality, such as education and building a modern infrastructure, Malacañang instead follows a militarist path.

We can kiss that bright future good bye if the “trapos” (traditional politicians) in charge end up spending the country’s resources on things like fighter jets and navy gunships, instead of schools, bridges and roads.

(And let’s not forget, in this clamor for more spending on weapons and bullets that we’re still dealing with a military with a shady record when it comes to corruption and human rights.)

Another point is worth underscoring: if there’s to be a war, it’s in Beijing’s interest for it to happen now.

They would want it to happen today when the Philippines is weak, and its would-be-ally, the USA, is no mood to join the fray – no mood to play the “resbak” (retaliation).

One can imagine the warmongers up north saying: ‘Why wait for that pesky island nation to get stronger? Let’s bait them into a fight now.’

Malacañang shouldn’t take the bait.

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