2025 Balikatan war games will simulate ‘full scale’ battle—Teodoro

MISSILE DEMO The Patriot, a mobile surface-to-air missile system, is launched during a live missile demonstration in the “Balikatan” military drills held at the Naval Education and Training Command in San Antonio, a Zambales town facing the West Philippine Sea. (File photo from MARIANNE BERMUDEZ)

MANILA, Philippines — Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. on Friday said the war games between Manila and Washington will see the emergence of a “full scale” battle simulation.

Teodoro made the announcement during the closing ceremony of Exercise “Balikatan” in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City.

Marcos looks forward to Balikatan 2025

He further said that President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is anticipating the unprecedented scale of next year’s war games.

“He (Marcos) looks forward to next year’s exercise which will be, I believe, a full battle simulation which will put to the test the combined capabilities in the most realistic of scenarios possible, with safety in mind,” Teodoro said in his speech.

Teodoro added that the president is waiting for an “extensive debrief” of the 39th iteration of this year’s war games, which began on April 22 and was joined by over 16,000 personnel.

Both nations’ forces simulated on Monday their foiling of an invasion attempt by a foreign country in the shores of Laoag — one of the country’s northernmost areas near Taiwan that also faces the West Philippine Sea —through the use of howitzers in live fire drills.

On Wednesday, the former BRP Lake Caliraya, a discarded “made in China” oil tanker, was also submerged during the sinking exercise held in the coastal city.

READ: ‘Made in China’ target ship now a fish shelter after ‘Balikatan’ simulation

In another first, the Philippines was also joined by France and the United States in conducting joint patrols in the West Philippine Sea, which saw the presence of four Chinese warships throughout their sail.

READ: China warships quiet during PH, US, France maritime drills in WPS

Back to the drawing board

“After this exercise, both sides will go back to the drawing board,” Teodoro said.

General Romeo Brawner Jr., Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff, also said the preparations for next year’s Balikatan will take place right after the closing ceremony.

“I believe that next year’s exercise would be more complex,” Brawner said, “and I was told that starting this afternoon they will already start the planning process for next year’s Balikatan exercise.”

From ‘maximum tolerance’ to maximum deterrence’

A maritime security expert on Friday said this new development signals Manila’s paradigm shift in dealing with Beijing.

“The full scale battle simulation is a transition from Manila’s maximum tolerance of Chinese belligerence in the WPS to maximum deterrent force and show of force,” said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, in a message to INQUIRER.net.

However, Cabalza said that China Coast Guard may show more aggressive actions against the Philippine Coast Guard in response with this more assertive posturing.

“But if China sees that Manila is firm enough on its grand strategy of protecting our territorial integrity through the coalition of like-minded nations, Beijing will seek for a bilateral talk with Malacañang,” Cabalza said.