Hazard exposure drives up PH disaster risk score

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines’ high exposure to hazards is driving up its risk of humanitarian crises and disasters, with this factor scoring significantly higher than the country’s vulnerability and lack of coping capacity, an analysis of the European Commission’s 2026 INFORM Risk Index showed.

The Philippines scored 5.3 and ranked 45th out of 191 countries in the latest INFORM Risk Index, a European Commission tool that measures countries’ risk of humanitarian crises and disasters.

It tied with Mauritania and Colombia and was classified as medium risk, placing third among the 11 Southeast Asian countries included in the index.

Only Myanmar, with a score of 6.7, and Cambodia, at 6.1, had higher risk scores in Southeast Asia. Thailand followed at 4.9, Indonesia at 4.5, Vietnam and Timor-Leste at 3.9 each, Laos at 3.8, Malaysia at 3.2, Brunei Darussalam at 2.3 and Singapore at 0.7.

The index assesses countries across three dimensions — Hazard and Exposure, Vulnerability, and Lack of Coping Capacity — using scores from 0 to 10, with higher scores indicating greater risk.

An analysis of the 2026 data by University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman associate professor and Inquirer data scientist Dr. Rogelio Alicor Panao found that the Philippines’ Hazard and Exposure score was 8.3, substantially higher than its scores in the other two dimensions.

“What drives the Philippines’ risk score up is Hazard and Exposure, a measure of how many people are physically exposed to hazards and the pressure they face, where it scores 8.3,” Panao said.

Hazard exposure stands out

The Philippines posted a score of 4.7 for Vulnerability and 3.8 for Lack of Coping Capacity, compared with 8.3 for Hazard and Exposure.

“On the other two dimensions, the country performs comparatively better than the region’s higher-risk states,” Panao said.

Panao noted that the Philippines’ Vulnerability score was lower than Myanmar’s 6.6 and Cambodia’s 5.8. Its Lack of Coping Capacity score was also below Myanmar’s 5.6 and Cambodia’s 5.5, and slightly lower than Thailand’s and Indonesia’s 3.9 each.

“The overall score, therefore, is being pushed up particularly strongly by hazard exposure rather than by uniformly high scores across all three dimensions,” Panao said.

According to the European Commission’s methodology, the INFORM Risk Index considers these three dimensions separately in assessing a country’s overall risk.

Hazard and Exposure covers the dangers present and the extent to which people are physically exposed to them, while Vulnerability looks at how susceptible populations are to harm, and Lack of Coping Capacity measures a country’s ability to respond.

Most indicators available

Panao also examined the completeness of the data used in the country assessments.

“While this is not good news, there is a tiny bit of consolation in the data,” he said.

Only 5.9% of the indicators used for the Philippines’ assessment were missing, which he described as a relatively low share compared with several Southeast Asian neighbors.

Singapore, which recorded the region’s lowest overall risk score at 0.7, had 23.5% of its indicators missing.

Panao cautioned that having fewer missing indicators does not necessarily make a country’s assessment more accurate.

“This does not mean the Philippine score is necessarily more accurate, but it suggests the assessment is relatively complete and presumably reliable for government agencies and local planners deciding where to strengthen disaster risk reduction, improve preparedness, map local vulnerabilities, and direct limited resources,” he said. /dm