Religious orders rise, but another Jesuit pope? Don’t count on it
Newly elected Pope Francis, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina appears on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica after being elected by the conclave of cardinals, at the Vatican, March 13, 2013. REUTERS FILE PHOTO
MANILA, Philippines — Pope Francis made history in 2013 as the first Jesuit pope and the first pontiff from a religious order in more than a century — the last being Pope Gregory XVI, a Camaldolese monk, who reigned from 1831 to 1846. But while religious orders are experiencing a revival of influence in today’s global Church, the odds that another Jesuit will emerge from the next conclave wearing the white cassock are vanishingly slim.
Yes, there are at least four Jesuit cardinal-electors in the College today. Chief among them is Cardinal Michael Czerny, a Canadian-born prelate who heads the Vatican’s Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development and is a trusted collaborator of Francis himself. Yet the current papacy’s complex, reform-driven, and often polarizing legacy makes it unlikely that the 130-plus cardinal electors will choose another Jesuit so soon. Conclaves tend to correct course, and many in the College are wary of reinforcing perceptions of ideological continuity, especially given lingering tensions over Francis’ openness to modern challenges and his recalibration of Church priorities.
This wariness is not new. Historically, members of religious orders, particularly those on the missionary frontiers like the Jesuits, have been viewed with suspicion by Church power centers. Their perceived flexibility in doctrine—whether to hasten evangelization or to engage with modernity—has long raised eyebrows in Rome. For centuries, the Church favored diocesan clergy, seeing them as steadier hands in preserving orthodoxy amid shifting cultural sands. That calculus kept religious orders away from the papal throne for nearly two hundred years.
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Yet Francis’ election cracked open that old firewall. In its wake, religious orders are back with a vengeance. The Salesians, the largest order of religious men after the Jesuits, now have five cardinal electors. Among them, Cardinal Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar is sometimes floated as papabile. But the tiny and beleaguered Church of Burma lacks the global clout to propel him to the papacy. A more viable Salesian candidate is Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, the Archbishop of Rabat in Morocco, whose missionary credentials align with Francis’ periphery-driven vision.
The Franciscans, too, are in the mix. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is gaining traction. As a Franciscan, he may appeal to conservative electors eager to recenter Church teaching after what they see as Francis’ pastoral overreach. Yet at only 60, Pizzaballa’s relative youth may work against him in a conclave that might prefer an older, transitional figure.
Among the Capuchins, another Franciscan branch, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo is rising, especially among conservatives. His vocal opposition to Fiducia Supplicans, the Vatican document allowing blessings for same-sex couples, has earned him points among traditionalists.
Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco of Algeria, a Dominican, is a stealth contender. As head of the tiny Church in Muslim-majority Algeria, he embodies the dialogue and frontier spirit Francis prizes. A civil lawyer (he has a master’s in business law) and a biblical scholar with gritty missionary credentials, Vesco ticks key boxes—though his low global profile makes him an outsider in Rome’s power game.
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The Dominican presence in the conclave is subtler but significant. Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça (Portugal), Cardinal Francis Leo (Canada), and Cardinal José Advíncula (Philippines) are all tied to the Dominican clerical fraternity.
Additionally, key papabili such as Cardinals Advincula, Mario Grech, and Robert Prevost trained at the Angelicum in Rome, the Dominicans’ intellectual stronghold. Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David, a dark horse contender from the Philippines, adds to the Dominican thread with his biblical studies at the Ecole Biblique in Jerusalem of the French Dominicans.
Yet perhaps the religious cardinal-elector with the strongest prospects is Cardinal Robert Prevost, an Augustinian. An American by birth, Prevost has deep missionary roots in Latin America, having served in Peru and even acquired Peruvian citizenship.
Twice elected Prior General of the Augustinian friars, Prevost’s global vision and leadership credentials make him a formidable candidate. His ties to the Philippines—he visited Cebu in 2015 for the 150th anniversary of the rediscovery (Kaplag) of the Santo Niño icon—also broaden his appeal to the growing Church in Asia.
Ultimately, the prominence of religious-order cardinals in this conclave is a direct consequence of Pope Francis’ reshaping of the Church’s center of gravity. By championing the peripheries and elevating voices from the missionary orders, Francis has made space for these men to contend for the papacy.
But a Jesuit? Not likely. The next conclave may well nod to the orders’ global reach, but it is just as likely to sidestep the Society of Jesus, wary of doubling down on the most controversial aspects of Francis’ legacy. The Jesuits may have helped reshape the Church’s horizons—but when the white smoke rises, it will probably be from another corner of the religious world. /dl
Lito B. Zulueta is professor of journalism at the Pontifical University of Santo Tomas in Manila. He covered the conclave of 2005 that elected Pope Benedict XVI and the one in 2013 that elected Pope Francis.
