Nankai Trough earthquake could kill 298,000 people in Japan, says gov’t

TOKYO (Jiji Press) — Up to 298,000 people are expected to be killed in Japan due mainly to a tsunami and building collapses if an earthquake of around magnitude 9 occurs in the Nankai Trough off the country’s Pacific coast, the Japanese government said Monday in a report compiled by an experts’ panel.

In the government’s previous projection in 2012-2013, the death toll from the potential Nankai Trough earthquake was estimated at some 323,000.

The latest projection reflects an increase in the number of antiseismic buildings and the development of tsunami evacuation facilities. Meanwhile, the latest terrain and ground data indicated that flooded areas would expand.

The Nankai Trough earthquake is projected to cause economic damage worth 292.2 trillion yen, rising from 237.2 trillion yen from the previous estimate due to higher prices.

If the earthquake occurs, a tremblor measuring 7, the highest level on Japan’s seismic intensity scale, is forecast to be recorded in a total of 149 municipalities in 10 of the country’s 47 prefectures, according to the latest estimate.

A tsunami of over 20 meters would likely be observed in a total of 23 municipalities in Tokyo and seven other prefectures. A tsunami of as high as 34 meters is projected to hit the city of Tosashimizu and the town of Kuroshio, both in the western prefecture of Kochi. Shizuoka, Mie, Wakayama, Tokushima and Kochi prefectures are expected to be hit by a tsunami of one  meter within five minutes after the earthquake.

The worst scenario is that the earthquake occurs at a late winter night with a wind speed of eight meters per second when few people are prepared for early evacuation. Of the total death toll, some 215,000 people are estimated to be killed in a tsunami, some 73,000 people in building collapses and some 8,700 people in fire.

The number of deaths from indirect causes related to the earthquake is estimated to total between 26,000 and 52,000. The panel’s report pointed to the possibility of more deaths as providing disaster relief to afflicted areas is seen difficult.

The panel pointed to the possibility of more deaths as providing disaster relief to afflicted areas promptly is seen more difficult than past earthquakes.

Up to 2.35 million buildings are likely to be damaged in fire.

A loss of 224.9 trillion yen is estimated if the earthquake damages buildings, water and sewage systems and other infrastructure as well as road and other transportation systems. The estimated damage from a possible decrease in production activities totals 45.4 trillion yen. It is projected to cost 21.9 trillion yen to restore damaged road and railway systems as well as port facilities.

A separate estimate by the Cabinet Office showed that the Nankai Trough earthquake will push down the country’s gross domestic product by 8.3 pct, or 45.4 trillion yen, for a year after it strikes.