The general apprehension over nuclear energy stems from the cost and long construction time of new reactors. FILE PHOTO/Agence France-Presse
TOKYO – Japan is decidedly embracing nuclear energy again, 13 years after it was jolted out of what it has come to refer to as the “nuclear safety” myth by the Fukushima Daiichi meltdown, which ranks among the world’s worst nuclear disasters.
A draft of its seventh Strategic Energy Plan – issued on Dec 17 and likely to be approved wholesale by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet – scraps language from past policy documents that reflected a resolve to “minimize reliance” on atomic energy.
Rather, it urges that more nuclear plants, which were shuttered for safety checks, be restarted and, for the first time since 2011, the construction of entirely new reactors, bringing Japan on board the global nuclear power renaissance.
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The blueprint, which is reviewed and updated every three to four years, comes as the world’s fourth-largest economy has been spooked by energy security fears, with global conflicts disrupting fossil fuel imports.
The document cites the benefits of nuclear power, saying it is stable, cheap, non-polluting and, unlike renewable energy such as wind and solar, can be generated independent of weather conditions.
For a country of 124 million people, Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate in 2023 stood at a meagre 15.2 per cent. At the same time, its digitalization push, with energy-gouging data centers and semiconductor foundries, heaps more demand on the power grid.
All this is not to mention how Japan had sweltered through its hottest year in 2024, including its hottest-ever autumn, with the mercury rising a national average of 1.97 deg C higher than usual. This delayed not just autumn foliage, but also the appearance of Mount Fuji’s famous snowcap.
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The draft policy put up by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Meti), with the advice of a 16-member panel, says: “It is essential to make maximum use of energy sources that contribute to energy security and have a high decarbonization effect, such as renewables and nuclear power.”
It forecasts renewables to be the main energy source come fiscal year 2040, which ends in March 2041, at 40 per ent to 50 percent. Nuclear will comprise 20 percent, while fossil fuels will make up the remaining 30 percent to 40 percent.
In comparison, in the year ending March 2024, fossil fuels were Japan’s top energy source at 68.6 percent, with renewables accounting for 22.9 percent and nuclear energy, 8.5 percent.
“We are in a situation where the stability of decarbonized power sources will greatly affect national strength,” said Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto. “We must increase energy self-sufficiency while advancing decarbonization.”
But the continued reliance on fossil fuels, on the one hand, and the renewed adoption of nuclear energy on the other, has been criticized by experts and activists alike, who believe that Japan, as the world’s fifth-largest carbon dioxide polluter, should be doing more to harness renewable energy sources.
READ: Fukushima’s melted reactors: still unclear conditions 13 years later
The general apprehension over nuclear energy stems from the high cost and long construction time of new reactors. It is also expensive to install safety upgrades to existing ones. Furthermore, the scars of the meltdown at the Fukushima plant persist in a disaster-prone nation, causing disquiet over whether nuclear energy is truly as safe as the authorities make it out to be.
Officials have long said that the country is hamstrung by its geography in weaning itself off fossil fuels, citing mountainous terrain that is not conducive to harnessing solar or wind power, and deep waters that are not favorable for wind turbines.
The idea of restarting nuclear plants, meanwhile, has been politically combustive. While nuclear once accounted for about 30 per cent of the power mix, all 54 reactors were taken offline after the 2011 disaster. Only 14 of the 33 still-operable reactors are back online.
The draft policy is likely to form the backbone of Japan’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions that must be submitted by February 2025 under the Paris Agreement, which will detail plans to cut carbon emissions by 2035.
Japan aims to be carbon-neutral by 2050. To get there, Meti is reportedly considering a goal to reduce emissions, compared with 2013 levels, by 60 per cent by 2035 and by 73 per cent by 2040. These figures compare with a 22.9 per cent cut in emissions in 2023.
It argues that it is “necessary to pursue all options, rather than engaging in a binary debate of either renewable energy or nuclear power”, emphasizing a so-called “S+3E” approach to energy. Safety is the most important premise, alongside energy security, economic efficiency and environment.
But experts lament what appears to be Tokyo’s fatalistic attitude towards renewables.
“It seems that the potential for renewable energy has been constrained to maintain the nuclear power target,” Ms Mika Ohbayashi, director of the Renewable Energy Institute, told The Straits Times.
Dr Takeshi Kuramochi of the NewClimate Institute added: “The ‘given Japan’s constraints’ framing doesn’t sound right to me, because all countries have their own unique challenges.”
Both experts noted that estimates by international watchdogs suggest that Japan has the ability to further harness renewable energy. One, by the Britain-based Renewable Energy Foundation, showed that Japan could derive 80 percent of its energy from renewables by 2035.
Yet the lower-bound target of 40 percent in 2040 is only marginally higher than the 2030 target of 36 per cent to 38 percent, which Dr Kuramochi said opens Japan up to “international criticism for demonstrating lack of ambition”.
“To achieve Japan’s decarbonization goals, the focus must be on expanding renewable energy – a mature technology – which will enhance the competitiveness of Japanese industry and enable sustainable growth,” Ms Ohbayashi added.
She noted how Japan’s refusal to spell out a road map to phase out fossil fuels goes against commitments by other Group of Seven nations, while the suggestion to build new reactors was unrealistic given their cost and the long construction duration of up to 20 years.
“Each new plant could cost over a trillion yen, and considering unresolved issues such as radioactive waste disposal, earthquake preparedness and evacuation routes, building new nuclear plants is quite difficult,” she said.
“It is unfortunate that significant political, economic and social resources will have to be spent on nuclear in the next decade and beyond, regardless of whether any new reactor could actually be built by 2040,” Dr Kuramochi added. “All these resources could be better spent on, for example, renewables and strengthening of grids.”