How the US elections will impact the Philippines

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After an election period filled with twists and turns–from assassination attempts, debate disasters to replacement candidates—it all boils down to this day: November 5, Election Day in the United States.

This year’s US presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is shaping up to be one of the closest in the powerful country’s history.

The race is so close that latest polls show that Harris and Trump remain deadlocked within margins of error in the seven so-called swing states that may very well dictate who will become the next president of the United States.

This brings us to a country hundreds of kilometers away from the US: The Philippines, a strong military ally of the powerful nation. Should we care about how the US election is shaping up?

The answer, and perhaps the safest answer: We should, at least, monitor it.

A military ally in the West Philippine Sea

The United States is one of the allies–if not the primary ally–of the Philippines in our fight for sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea.

Due to recent aggression by China against Philippine vessels in West Philippine Sea, proposals to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between Manila and Washington have grown louder.

The MDT is a 73-year old military agreement between Manila and Washington which calls for each other’s defense in case of an armed attack–including in the West Philippine Sea.

“The US election will certainly impact the geopolitical fate of two allied states on how they will address issues on asymmetrical trade and security in the Indo-Pacific region,” Dr. Chester Cabalza, president and founder of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told INQUIRER.net.

The MDT, however, is not the only military agreement the Philippines has with the US.

This year alone, four new locations were identified as additional sites for the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca), not to mention the annual military exercises and joint patrols between Manila and Washington in Philippine waters.

Edca allows the US to rotate troops in the Philippines for extended stays and the US to build and operate facilities on Philippine bases for both American and Philippine forces.

According to Cabalza, a leadership change in the US may be a “boon and bane” for Philippines security, especially with standing agreements the two countries have.

“As a friend of the US, Filipinos should see the electoral change in the White House as a boon and bane if Washington will fulfill its treaty obligations with Manila as both countries mutually expanded naval and aerial bases in northern and western parts of the Philippines,” Cabalza said.

So when the election is over, what will happen to the Philippines?

A Harris win may simply mean a continuation of the working relationship between Manila and Washington, taking off from the relationship between the administration of President Bongbong Marcos and the administration of US President Joe Biden.

In September 2023, Marcos and Harris met on the sidelines of the 43rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Jakarta where among the issues they discussed was the West Philippine Sea. During their meeting, Harris reaffirmed the US’ ironclad commitment to the Philippines.

The doubts, however, arise from a possible Trump win.

Cabalza said he fears that Trump may lessen his focus on the West Philippine Sea and direct it to other conflicts in other parts of the globe.

“With Trump’s triumph, he may compartmentalize his foreign policy and lessen his focus on the West Philippine Sea as he will give more importance to current wars in Ukraine and Gaza,” Cabalza said.

“His comeback will also change the contours and the security landscape in the region as he may halt the defense developments in the Edca sites,” he added.

Geopolitical analyst and De La Salle University Department of International Studies lecturer Don McLain Gill pointed out that during Trump’s term as president of the US, there were also attempts to strengthen Washington’s relationship with Manila.

However, then Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pivoted towards China and gave cold shoulder treatment to the US, not allowing the Philippines to maximize its negotiations with the Trump administration.

“The Trump administration also rejected a huge percentage of China’s expansionist claims over the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea, in particular. In that regard, we could see how the Philippine-US alliance was significant,” Gill told INQUIRER.net.

Gill, however, noted the stark difference between the foreign policy of Duterte, who aligned himself with China, and Marcos, who was more open to working with the US.

“With Marcos Jr. however, I see a foreign policy that positions the Philippines as a proactive hub for like-minded cooperation as well as the Philippines’ position in wanting to be a more proactive stakeholder in the rules-based order of the Indo-Pacific. I think that converges well with the Trump administration,” Gill added.

Nonetheless, Gill stressed that there are still concerns over a Trump re-election, especially with the “negotiation-driven approach” of the former US president.

Will Manila still be a priority for Trump?

Gill said he believes that the Indo-Pacific region will still be a “clear” priority for Trump, given the escalating tension between the US and China.

“This would rely on Manila’s ability to present itself as an important stakeholder and important element in the Indo-Pacific geopolitics because we are a frontliner state. We are acutely affected by the US-China power competition. It’s up to how we are able to convey that message to a Trump administration,” Gill said.

“We cannot just expect without making more of an effort in the negotiations and dialogues with the US as well,” he added.

For now, only time can tell what will happen with US-Philippines ties should Trump win, although it is important to note that Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez stressed that the MDT will remain unchanged, regardless of who becomes the next US president.

Romualdez said that while a Trump comeback could bring shifts in economic policy, the defense relations between Manila and Washington would remain intact.

Filipinos in the US

While results of the US elections may not directly impact Filipinos here in the Philippines, these could affect millions of Filipinos residing in the States.

As of 2022, there are about 4.1 million Filipino-Americans living in the US, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

Immigration is one of the issues at the forefront of the US presidential elections.

A Pew Research Center report states that about 61 percent of US voters say immigration is very important to their vote. This figure is a 9 percentage point increase from the 2020 presidential election.

Harris is pushing for comprehensive immigration reforms, such as providing pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

The vice president also said in a visit to Arizona in September that anyone crossing the border illegally would be barred from seeking asylum in the US. But “hard-working migrants” who come to the US legally should be given a pathway to citizenship, she said.

If there’s one issue that has served as a cornerstone of the Trump campaign, it is immigration.

If he is successful in staging a comeback to the White House, Trump intends to initiate what he calls as the “biggest domestic deportation operation in US history.”

The proposal will affect millions of undocumented individuals in the US, including undocumented Filipinos.

In 2017, the Philippine government prepared for the deportation of some 10,000 Filipinos who may be evicted from the US after the Trump administration rescinds a program that allows undocumented immigrant children to stay legally there.

Trump’s immigration policy may also limit opportunities for Filipinos who wish to try their luck in the US.

“[This could affect] those who want to pursue a career path or education in the US. With immigration tighter or new immigration policies or longer bureaucratic processes could significantly impact the social aspect of the people-to-people relationship between the US and the Philippines,” Gill said.

For context, an INQUIRER.net report states that in 2022, the Philippines ranked as one of the leading countries of origin for immigrants to the United States, representing a notable four percent of the total immigrant population.

US-China… and the Philippines

Regardless of who wins the US presidential elections, the power struggle between the US and China will continue–and caught in the middle is the Philippines.

“The US remains as the strongest state in hard and soft powers that’s why the Philippines and the world have strategic interests in its current election,” Cabalza said.

According to Cabalza, the election of a new US leader will affect global geopolitics and economy, as well as whether the US will maintain its superpower role in the world, especially with the rising threat of China.

“It matters to all of us, as the world order may see sudden alteration under the new leader of the US,” Cabalza said.

The fact is, whatever happens between the US and China will have an impact on other countries, but more so on the Philippines which is geographically near China.

Geopolitically speaking, the Philippines is also at the intersection of the traditional sphere of US influence and the emergence of China’s power projection, according to Gill. Thus, a radical change in the global power structure will have an impact on the Philippines.

Gill explained that China’s challenges and expansionist ambitions in the West Philippine Sea have become an “existential threat” to the Philippines, which relies on the US as a security partner.

“If the US would decrease its involvement, that could be a problem for our overarching foreign policy security calculations given that the US is our traditional security provider and traditional ally,” Gill said.

Should China also challenge the US over Taiwan, the northern part of the Philippines, which is only a few nautical miles away from Taiwan, will also be immediately affected.

This concern is on top of the more than 200,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan, Gill added.

This brings us back to a question in this long and arduous journey: Should the Philippines care about what’s happening in the US?

Every decision has a ripple effect. Given the global political and economic climate that we’re living in at the moment, the US election may not simply be a ripple, but a huge wave.