Moldova president blames interference for potential EU referendum loss

A child casts the ballot of a relative during the presidential election and referendum on joining the European Union at a specially designated polling station for the people living in Transnistria region, in Varnita on October 20, 2024. Agence France-Presse

CHISINAU, Moldova — Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu blamed an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy” after partial election results on Sunday showed a majority of Moldovans choosing “no” in a referendum on joining the European Union.

If confirmed, this will mean a major setback for Sandu, who managed to top the first round of presidential elections held at the same time but will face a tough second round.

The double votes are seen as key tests of the former Soviet republic’s pro-European turn under Sandu but have been overshadowed by fears of Russian meddling amid the war in neighboring Ukraine.

READ: EU launches ‘historic’ membership talks with Ukraine, Moldova

Sandu, who beat a Moscow-backed incumbent in 2020, cut ties with Moscow and applied for her country of 2.6 million people to join the EU following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In the referendum, with 90 percent of the vote counted, some 53 percent had said “no” and almost 47 percent said “yes”, but results could yet change as votes abroad are counted.

A somber-looking Sandu said Moldova has faced “an unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy, both today and in recent months,” blaming “criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests”.

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In the presidential election, Sandu gained 38 percent of the votes, according to the partial results, and so will face her closest competitor, Alexandr Stoianoglo, in a second round on November 3.

The former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Socialists had picked up a higher-than-expected result of more than 28 percent in the race with 11 competitors in total.

‘Weakens pro-European image’

The referendum result — even if it still reverses and the “yes” vote wins narrowly — “weakens the pro-European image of the population and the leadership of Maia Sandu”, Florent Parmentier, a political scientist at Paris-based Sciences Po, told AFP.

Describing the result as a “surprise”, he said it would not impact the accession negotiations with the EU, which began this June, though a clear “yes” would have been “a clear positive signal to Brussels”.

Parmentier added the results “did not bode well for the second round” for Sandu, noting many of those who supported the nine other candidates on Sunday were more likely to vote for Stoiagnolu in the second round.

Sandu, 52, a former World Bank economist and Moldova’s first woman president, had been the clear favourite in the race, with surveys also predicting a “yes” victory in the referendum.

Sandu’s critics say she has not done enough to fight inflation in one of Europe’s poorest countries or to reform the judiciary.

In his campaign, Stoianoglo — who was fired as prosecutor by Sandu — called for the “restoration of justice” and vowed to wage a “balanced foreign policy”.

The 57-year-old abstained from voting in the referendum.

In Chisinau, voter Ghenadie, who declined to give his last name, said he was worried by what he saw as the country’s “Western” drift and thought the government was “making the situation worse” economically.

Another voter, Olga Cernega, a 60-year-old economist, said she had come to vote “for prosperity, peace and wellbeing in our country”.

‘Unprecedented’ vote-buying scheme

Fears of Russian interference have been looming large.

Washington issued a fresh warning recently about suspected Russian interference, while the EU passed new sanctions on several Moldovans.

Moscow has “categorically” rejected accusations of meddling.

Police made hundreds of arrests in recent weeks after discovering an “unprecedented” vote-buying scheme that they say could taint up to a quarter of the ballots cast in the country of 2.6 million.

Police said millions of dollars from Russia aiming to corrupt voters were funneled into the country by people affiliated to Ilan Shor, a fugitive businessman and former politician.

Convicted in absentia last year for fraud, Shor regularly brands Moldova a “police state” and the West’s “obedient puppet”.

“You have crushingly failed,” Shor posted on social networks after the vote.

In addition to the suspected vote buying, hundreds of young people were found to have been trained in Russia and the Balkans to create “mass disorder” in Moldova, such as using tactics to provoke law enforcement, according to police.