Millions vote in fraught Venezuelan presidential election

Opponents to President Nicolas Maduro shout slogans demanding the closing of the polling stations in Petare neighbourhood in Caracas, during the presidential election, on July 28, 2024. Venezuelans vote Sunday between continuity in President Nicolas Maduro or change in rival Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia amid high tension following the incumbent’s threat of a “bloodbath” if he loses, which polls suggest is likely. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP)

Millions of Venezuelans turned out Sunday to vote in a fraught presidential election with socialist incumbent Nicolas Maduro facing the biggest challenge yet to his party’s 25-year hold on power.

Maduro, 61, is seeking a third six-year term at the helm of the once wealthy petro-state where GDP dropped by 80 percent in a decade on his watch, pushing more than seven million of its 30 million citizens to emigrate.

In office since 2013, he is accused of locking up critics and harassing the opposition in a climate of rising authoritarianism.

Independent polls suggest Sunday’s vote could bring an end to 25 years of “Chavismo,” the populist movement founded by Maduro’s socialist predecessor and mentor, the late Hugo Chavez.

But analysts say the president is unlikely to concede defeat to opposition challenger Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who is favored to win by a wide margin.

“We’re praying that they don’t steal the election. They always have,” voter Mercedes Henriquez, 68, told AFP in Caracas ahead of the vote.

And if they do? “Well, we have to go out on the street. For my vote. For my children” — two of whom live abroad along with six of her grandchildren.

Maduro, who had previously warned of a “bloodbath” if he loses, said Sunday he would “make sure” the final result from the regime-aligned CNE electoral authority is “defended.”

CNE chief Elvis Amoroso, nevertheless, described the opposition as “enemies of Venezuela.”

– ‘Prepared to defend’ –

Based on its own numbers, the regime insists it will prevail over Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old former diplomat reluctantly thrust to the top of the opposition ticket after the movement’s wildly popular leader Maria Corina Machado was disqualified.

Maduro counts on a loyal electoral machinery, military leadership and state institutions in a system of well-established political patronage.

Gonzalez Urrutia said Sunday the opposition was “prepared to defend” the vote and trusted “our armed forces to respect the decision of our people.”

Machado cited figures showing that more than nine million people had voted by lunchtime — suggesting a possibly “historic” turnout.

Polls officially closed after 12 hours of voting at 6:00 pm (2200 GMT), but people still in line will be allowed to cast their ballots.

AFP witnessed long queues hours before polls opened.

Analysts told AFP a large turnout would benefit the opposition and make it harder to fudge the figures, as the Maduro government has been accused of doing in the past.

– Watching ‘very closely’ –

Sunday’s election is the product of a deal reached last year between the government and opposition with the backing of the United States — which temporarily eased sanctions imposed after Maduro’s 2018 reelection was rejected as a sham by most Western and Latin American countries.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday urged everyone involved to “respect the democratic process” and said the international community was “going to be watching this very closely.”

Washington is keen for a return to stability in Venezuela — an ally of Cuba, Russia and China that boasts the world’s largest oil reserves but severely diminished production capacity.

Economic misery in the South American nation has been a major source of migration pressure on the US southern border.

“It’s clear that if Maduro grabs power by force or with violence, we would see an even greater wave in a very short period of time – three, four, five million Venezuelans more leaving,” Machado said after casting her vote in Caracas.

“What’s at stake here goes beyond our borders, beyond Venezuela,” she added.

Most Venezuelans live on just a few dollars a month, with the country’s health care and education systems in disrepair and the population subject to biting shortages of electricity and fuel.

The government blames sanctions, but observers point the finger at corruption and government inefficiency.

On Friday, a Venezuelan NGO said Caracas was holding 305 “political prisoners” and had arrested 135 people with links to the opposition campaign since January.

Concerns for the fairness of the vote were further stoked when Caracas blocked international observers at the last minute, including four Latin American ex-presidents who had their plane held up in Panama on Friday.

Observers from the European Union had their invitation withdrawn weeks ago. A small delegation from the US-based Carter Center has been allowed in, as well as a UN expert panel that will issue a confidential report.

About 21 million Venezuelans are registered as voters, but only an estimated 17 million still in the country were eligible to cast a ballot.