China may turn more aggressive over the East and South China Seas due to its economic plunge, former national security adviser Roilo Golez warned.
Chinese stocks fell nearly 7 percent last Monday, starting the year on a grim note.
“It will be recalled that the China market already went down last year by 30-40% representing a loss of around $4 Trillion. A 7% drop is equivalent to around $700 B,” Golez said.
He said this was being monitored not only by economists but security analysts as well.
Golez presented two scenarios due to this economic downturn, saying this “may mean a slowdown in their territorial aggressiveness in both the East China Sea (Japan area) and the South China Sea (Philippines-Vietnam area) with the leadership focusing on repairing their economy and preventing further loss of jobs. “
But this could also mean a more “aggressive” China to “divert the people’s attention from their economic woes.”
“As I said, it may mean a more moderate foreign policy. However, it may also make the current leadership more aggressive and trigger an international crisis to divert the people’s attention from their economic woes. This is called ‘wagging the dog,’” Golez said.
The recent test flight in a disputed artificial island in South China Sea could be part of this scheme.
“I am sure both the US and Japanese security groups are closely monitoring the situation. China’s alarming test flight in one of the artificial islands may be part of this scenario. Already, both the US and Japan have reacted strongly against the test flight,” he said.
Golez noted that under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China’s defense budget soared above $130B.
But he stressed that China did not have serious economic problems under Xi’s predecessors Jian Zemin and Hu Jintao. This could mean a tougher political situation for Xi.
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