More China runways on islets raise fears anew

BEIJING—China’s campaign of island building in the South China Sea might soon quadruple the number of airstrips available to the People’s Liberation Army in the highly contested and strategically vital waterway.

That could be bad news for other regional contenders, especially the United States, the Philippines and Vietnam.

The island construction work that is creating vast amounts of new hectarage by piling sand on top of coral reefs is now moving into the construction stage, with buildings, harbors and, most important, runways appearing in recent months.

China now operates one airfield on Phu Lam Island (international name: Woody Island) in the Paracel island chain claimed by Vietnam, and satellite photos show what appears to be work on two, possibly three, additional airstrips on newly built islands in the Spratly archipelago to the east, parts of which are within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

The bases could have a “significant impact on the local balance of power” by helping bolster the forward presence of the Chinese Coast Guard and Navy, according to Euan Graham, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia.

Opaque plans

As with most South China Sea developments, China has remained opaque about its plans for the island airstrips.

At a recent monthly briefing, defense ministry spokesperson Wu Qian declined to say how many China planned to build or what their purpose would be, repeating only that all military infrastructure was “purely for defensive purposes.”

Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea and its islands and has created seven new features in the Spratlys since last year that are permanently above water totaling more than 800 hectares in area, according to satellite photos collected by US government agencies and private groups, including the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

While China insists its island building works are justified and don’t constitute a threat to stability, further militarization of the South China Sea seems assured given China’s increasingly robust assertions of its territorial claims.

Those perceptions were reinforced with the deployment in October of advanced J-11BH/ BHS fighters of the Navy’s air assets to Phu Lam that was revealed online in China in October. China’s military has declined to comment on the reports.

Phu Lam’s 2.4-kilometer-long runway will soon be eclipsed by one more than 3 km long on the reclaimed island built atop the Philippine-claimed Kagitingan Reef (Fiery Cross Reef) in the Spratlys, the satellite photos show.

Another runway is being built on Zamora Reef (Subi Reef), with signs of similar work under way on nearby Panganiban Reef (Mischief Reef). Both reefs are on the Philippine side of the Spratlys.

Intimidating rivals

Patrols by fighter jets based on the islands, most likely temporarily given the salty climate and frequent storms, could serve to intimidate other claimants, especially the Philippines and Vietnam.

That could also complicate regular operations by US forces that insist on freedom of navigation and overflight over the entire sea.

“In periods of tension, the intimidation value of air patrols from the islands would be considerable,” Graham said.

The airfields would allow Chinese aircraft to refuel, repair and if necessary, rearm without having to fly the more than 1,000 km to the nearest Chinese air base on Hainan Island, said Hans Kristensen, a China security expert with the Federation of American Scientists.

They would also be highly vulnerable to bombing in an actual conflict, although their presence alone would require additional planning and effort by opponents.

Short of that, the issue grows murkier and more troublesome, especially if China were to announce a zone of air control over all or part of the South China Sea.

In that case, the airstrips could be launching points for patrols, enforcement operations and possibly strikes.

Air defense zone

China announced an initial air defense identification zone over much of the East China Sea in late 2013, a designation the United States, Japan and other countries refused to recognize.

In early December, China conducted what its Air Force spokesperson, Shen Jinke, described as the latest “routine patrol” through the zone, featuring aircraft including H-6K long-range bombers, fighter jets and early warning aircraft.

Questioned on plans for a South China Sea zone, Wu said that would depend on threats to China’s interests and security.

“Therefore we will take into consideration a number of factors in making the decision,” Wu said.

In late October, the US Navy sent a guided-missile destroyer, the USS Lassen, sailing near Zamora Reef and in early November, two US B-52 strategic bombers flew near China’s artificial islands in the Spratlys in what the United States called freedom of navigation and overflight operations but were largely seen as a show of support for its ally, the Philippines, which has taken its territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea to a UN arbitral court for resolution.

China has refused to take part in the proceedings in the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague and said it would not recognize any decision by the tribunal.

A decision is expected by the middle of next year.

Rivals’ airstrips

Other countries also operate airstrips on their South China Sea holdings, but their size and level of sophistication are dwarfed by China’s new developments.

Vietnam’s strip on Truong Sa in the Spratlys is just 550 meters, just long enough to accommodate slow-moving cargo and surveillance planes.

Those operated by the Philippines on Pagasa Island (Thitu Island) and Taiwan on Itu Aba (Taiping Island), and Malaysia on Pulau Layang-Layang (Swallow Reef) are about twice as long, allowing them to land fighters as well.

Yet, only Kagitingan Reef on the Philippine side of the Spratlys is long enough to accommodate bombers like the H-6K, whose air-launched cruise missiles increase its destructive power.

Strategic resources

Lying astride busy sea-lanes, rich fisheries and a potential wealth of mineral deposits, the Chinese airfields would also boost China’s position over strategic resources it craves to fuel economic growth.

The new airstrips will also come in handy as China develops its aircraft carrier program, particularly for training pilots in simulated night landings or to recover planes in difficult conditions.

But their usefulness is constrained by the need for large amounts of jet fuel on hand, along with the need to reinforce strips built on sand to handle bombers and other heavy aircraft.

“If we start to see satellite evidence of fuel storage going in on a large scale on the artificial islands, that will be the clearest indicator that China is planning to develop them as active air bases,” Graham said. AP