If Manila junks peace, wages war vs. the MILF, these 7 will win

Without a doubt, the Mamasapano tragedy must lead to a reexamination of the laws, rules, guidelines that are still being worked out as part of the peace agreement with the MILF.

But those pushing for all-out war with the rebels keep missing a key point: All- out war doesn’t work. It never has. It never will.

Ferdinand Marcos tried it 40 year ago, and the Moro movement simply grew stronger, forcing the dictator to sign a peace agreement that eventually fell apart.

Believing that wiping out the MILF would be as easy as mowing down the bad guys in his movies, Erap gave it a shot during his disastrous administration.

The military did take over Camp Abubakar and Erap and his allies, in a supreme example of political cluelessness, brought lechon and beer to the camp to celebrate. But 15 years later, the MILF is still there, looking even stronger.

There’s another point the warmongers keep ignoring: The Moros are rebelling because their people have been bullied, abused, robbed and humiliated for decades.

We keep forgetting that.

The fact that key MILF leaders are talking peace suggests there’s a meaningful segment of the Moro movement that really wants to end the war.

Are all of them for peace? Clearly not, for many reasons.

Which is why the peace process is bound to be complicated going forward and both sides must proceed with caution, seeking ways to strengthen the hand of leaders, on both sides who genuinely want peace.

But abandoning the talks would be a disaster.

Oh, all-out war would produce winners–but they’re not the ones those eager for more bloodshed expect.

Here’s my list of seven would-be winners:

1) BIFF — It’s a safe bet that, with the reported major AFP campaign against them, the Bangsa Moro Islamic Freedom Fighters, which broke with the MILF because it rejected the terms of the ongoing peace process, would want nothing more than to have their erstwhile comrades join the fight.

2) Abu Sayaff — The terrorist organization, notorious for kidnap-for-ransom operations in the Sulu archipelago, is also under fire from a reported AFP offensive. One thing could ease that pressure: A new Philippine military offensive against the MILF.

3) NPA — The MILF learned many things from the communist underground and the NPA. Some of their leaders disclosed this to me when I wrote about the Moro movement in the late 1980s. While reporting on the Mindanao years of the late UG cadre Edgar Jopson, I was told by one NPA commander that they sometimes coordinated military operations with the MILF. Expect that coordination to resume if the AFP decides to launch another major offensive against the MILF.

4) Al Qaeda — The MILF has admitted that it once had close ties with Al Qaeda. MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad had spoken about joining the fight against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan where he met Osama bin Laden. But painting Murad and other key MILF leaders as lackeys of the global terrorist organization would be very narrow-minded. Are there Al Qaeda sympathizers within the MILF? Probably. Expect them to gain the upper hand, sidelining the likes of open-minded leaders like Murad, if Manila unleashes another all-out war against the MILF.

5) ISIS — The Islamic State, or ISIS, has captured the imagination of extremist Muslim radicals, many of them young people from different countries. A recent report by National Public Radio said ISIS has even found success recruiting new members in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation. Just think of all the young Moros, disillusioned by the broken promise of peace with the Manila government, outraged by the bloodshed and destruction that another war would likely cause, who would likely answer the call of one of the most brutal terrorist organizations in history.

6) War addicts and profiteers — Within the AFP, the PNP and the MILF are soldiers who’ve grown so accustomed to war, it’s hard for them to imagine peace. These would include military and police officers who see all-out war as a ticket to promotions and MILF fighters who dread the idea of having to find a regular job once the peace process succeeds. Then there are the businesses that actually stand to make a killing if war breaks out, from arms manufacturers to the smaller outfits that make sure fighters on both sides have everything they need to keep on fighting.

7) Richard Gomez — Seriously, can the country afford to listen to an actor-turned-politician who clearly doesn’t understand the history of this conflict and doesn’t care about the consequences of a major war in Mindanao?

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