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BRUSSELS, Belgium—Now that the Czech president looks set to sign the Lisbon treaty and create a new-look European Union, the great Brussels jobs steeplechase gets underway in earnest this week.
Barring another twist in the saga should the Czech constitutional court rule otherwise on Tuesday, the leaders of the bloc's 27 countries will enter full horse-trading flight at a two-day summit starting Thursday.
With what could be termed the “Ditch Blair Project” having kicked into a gallop, thanks mainly to French President Nicolas Sarkozy pulling in the reins from past public backing, the race is also wide open.
Former British premier Tony Blair as the global face of Brussels? It had its attractions for some, although not, of course, Britain's Conservative opposition, expected to form a new government in London next year.
But revulsion for others—with Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Poland all making their resistance clear—looks to have proved just too widespread.
Sarkozy crystallized the line peddled by the likes of Luxembourg when he cited a "problem" if the new, 30-month appointed post of EU president went to a country that doesn't use the euro currency.
Other suggested conditions include being a member of the borderless Schengen zone and not having negotiated an opt-out from the EU's charter of fundamental rights—which also, incidentally, rules out Poles, Irishmen, and women and the Czechs.
Practical obstacles, though, center instead on Blair's role as George W. Bush's faithful sidekick on Iraq—and a feeling that Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel might prefer a lesser name who could prove easier to control when unexpected events occur.
Increasingly aggressive opposition from Luxembourg is explained by diplomats as proof its prime minister—the man with his hands on the money as head of the 16-nation Eurogroup—would rather like the job himself.
Jean-Claude Juncker could certainly imbibe the role with his experience as Europe's longest-serving head of government, while Jan Peter Balkenende of the Netherlands is the other name most frequently mentioned by diplomats alongside ex-Finnish president Paavo Lipponen.
Blair has never officially declared himself a candidate, but Sarkozy was reportedly one of the first EU leaders to put the former British premier forward in 2007.
Recently, though, that tack has changed—reportedly after talks with Merkel.
Sarkozy said in an interview that "it is too early to say" whether Blair would win the backing of national leaders, who control the appointment. They will formally debate the issue over dinner on Thursday.
"Personally I believe in a Europe that is politically strong and has a figurehead," Sarkozy told France's Le Figaro daily. "But the fact that Britain is not in the euro remains a problem."
Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann has also said he is "skeptical about Mr. Blair."
Meanwhile, William Hague, whose Conservative leader David Cameron is expected to seize power in London in the spring, says appointing Blair "would just underline the lack of accountability and democracy that is our objection to the Lisbon treaty."
Balkenende may have the edge, according to senior political analyst Antonio Missiroli of the European Policy Center in Brussels.
At 53, the Dutchman is a relatively new face and he hails from the center-right ground occupied by the majority of European leaders.
He is also successfully leading a broad coalition, a prerequisite for relations with center-left figures whose numbers have recently been boosted by Greek and Portuguese elections.
Either way, Brussels wants the choices for the two new jobs of president and foreign affairs supremo named by the end of the year.
In principle this can be done via a qualified majority of EU nations, but the tradition is for such high-profile decisions to be made through consensus, which suggests lengthy talks over digestifs with Juncker and his ilk deep into Thursday night.
