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The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has now determined that greenhouse gases threaten public health and the environment. It now accepts what climate science overwhelmingly shows that in modern times with industrialization greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at unprecedented levels in the earth atmosphere is due to human activities. This is the latest news from the US which is greatly welcome by all those who still have high hopes for the COP15 in Copenhagen to come up with strong and concrete commitments of the different countries of the world, both rich and poor, to reduce their GHG emissions.
This new position of the EPA means that the US under President Obama is now concerned that climate change could actually lead the Americans to suffer from hotter and longer heat waves, for example. Under Bush, climate change was denied, which led the US to distant itself from the Kyoto Protocol.
As a review, there is now a scientific consensus that as a result of human activities involving the use of fossil based fuels in power generation, transportation or running factories, GHG concentrations in the atmosphere has gone higher which caused the earth to warm up in the past 100 years. With the increase in average surface temperatures; comes the melting of ice and glaciers and increasing ocean temperatures which together also causes the sea levels to rise, alter precipitation patterns and that of the ecosystems and wildlife habitat.
Now tens of thousands of people with varying backgrounds or disciplines from the different parts of the world are converging in Copenhagen for the COP15. But the most awaited person is President Obama of the US and what he has to say on the last day of the conference when the final agreement will be hammered about what each country has to do to help curtail GHG emissions. At most, in order to keep the increase to no more than 2 degrees centigrade, COP15 aims to keep the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere at the safe level of 450 ppm or less at 350 ppm, if the environmentalist were to have their way.
Until the last couple of months or so, there was much hope that COP15 will be successful in coming out with a new document with stronger commitments to reduce GHG than what was provided in the Kyoto Protocol which is to expire in 2012. But the as the days for COP15 came closer darks clouds came when the high GHG emitting countries, the developed world and the fast growing China and India, could not agree on what each should commit in Copenhagen. The main question of course was the US which up to last month was still not sure of what it will present in Copenhagen in the absence of an enabling legislation that would allow the US government to make concrete its commitment to reduce its GHG emissions. Thanks to the EPA, President Obama now has something clear to say about the seriousness of the US in fighting climate change as he meets the other leaders of the world on the last day of the COP15.
In a TIME report, UNFCCC chair Yvo de Boir was quoted to have said that "Copenhagen is already a turning point in the international response to climate change," the Time.com lists the following 5 matters to watch for:
1. Will the U.S. lead? The U.S. delegation to climate summits under former President George W. Bush played the spoiler. Not only were American diplomats generally opposed to building a global consensus on reducing carbon emissions, they actively seemed to enjoy gumming up the works, walking out in the middle of negotiations during the Montreal summit in 2005, for instance, and nearly torpedoing the entire process two years ago in Bali.
2. Will China and India follow? Historically, the U.S. may be the world's biggest carbon emitter? responsible for more than a quarter of the man-made CO2 in the atmosphere? but developing nations led by China and India will be responsible for the majority of future emissions. At the same time, those nations still have low per capita emissions, and under the Kyoto Protocol, they haven't been required to take any verifiable actions to control emissions. Until recently, they haven't shown much interest in doing so, but that may now be changing.
3. The two-step tango. Back in 2007 on the sunny Indonesian island of Bali, negotiators worked out the "Bali road map," a series of steps toward a successor to the Kyoto Protocol that would guarantee a new global climate treaty by the 2009 conference in Copenhagen. Well, road map or not, the international community got a bit delayed? in part due to the fact that Obama has had less than a year to turn around U.S. climate policy? and no one expects an actual treaty to be negotiated and signed in Copenhagen.
4. Seeing REDD on deforestation. The loss of tropical forests plays a major role in climate change, contributing about 15% of global greenhouse gases, according to the most recent estimate. But deforestation has an environmental impact that goes beyond climate change? tropical forests are home to a wealth of diverse species, and when the trees are lost, wildlife follows.
5. Financing adaptation. Combating climate change isn't just about reducing carbon emissions. Global warming is coming even if we do act fast, and developing nations will bear the brunt of the impact. That's why another leg in the global treaty will address funding to help developing nations adapt to climate change? whether that means the building of seawalls, aid for agriculture during increasing droughts or the ability to better respond to natural disasters. "We need clarity on long-term finance for developing countries," says de Boer.
