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On Sept. 10, former defense secretary Avelino Cruz Jr. stirred up public anxieties about a creeping authoritarianism, with a warning to the nation to be “vigilant and fight any attempt” to impose emergency rule if hostilities in Mindanao escalate and ignite terrorist attacks in other parts of the country. Cruz framed his warning in the context of the renewed fighting in Mindanao between the government and the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
The warning not only rekindled the memory of the nation on the eve of 14 years of the Marcos dictatorship, but also provoked a debate in the press over whether President Macapagal-Arroyo is following in the footsteps of Marcos in the last two years of her second term to keep power in perpetuity. If the charismatic Ninoy Aquino failed to galvanize public resistance to Marcos’ eventual declaration of emergency rule, it is uncertain whether similar warnings, including that of Cruz, could rouse the people to resist any attempt to install a new dictatorship.
Some critics noted a pattern in the actions of President Arroyo replicating actions of President Marcos when he laid down the infrastructure of martial law “at least one year” before the expiration of his second term on Dec. 30, 1973. This critique noted that President Arroyo appeared to be following in the footsteps of Marcos – like packing the Supreme Court with handpicked justices prior to declaring martial law, controlling the military establishment, controlling local government and putting cronies in sensitive and strategic government offices.
However, this replication of the Marcos takeover-template would not ensure a successful imposition of a national emergency provoked by the intensification of the Mindanao conflict. Even though President Arroyo has shown an overt proclivity to take authoritarian measures – including the short-lived national emergency in 2005, crackdown on critical sections of the mass media, attempts to seize control of enterprises owned by her designated political enemies – these are not sufficient to guarantee a successful power seizure in the Marcos model.
President Arroyo has to do much more to ensure a successful power grab. She is not in full control of the army and the national police. Marcos had solid control of and complete loyalty from them. Full military loyalty to Ms Arroyo is in doubt. If she calls in the army to back a declaration of martial law in the midst of the Mindanao war, she will be in deep trouble.
If the army is faced with establishing order on two fronts – the political sector and the Mindanao war – military leaders would be tempted to take power on their own instead of saving an extremely unpopular president. Any power seizure in Manila, either by Ms Arroyo and her cohorts or by the generals, would inflame the Islamic rebellion in Mindanao. She better not try – unless she wishes to leave Malacañang dragged out with tied feet. – Amando Doronila, Inquirer
